For Morgan Collectors: Is the 1893s really that rare, or just popular?

For aspiring and current Morgan collectors, the question always comes up--what do I do with the 1893s? Long acknowledged as the "key" date to the Morgan series, and having good mid grade MS coins become a six figure proposition, the question is "what to do," if one wants the complete Morgan set. Now, if we take a look at the mintages, 100,000 coins of that date and mint were minted. Survival figures are estimated at about 10%--that would be approximately 10,000 surviving 1893s coins. Given that I have had two complete Morgan sets that were LARGELY MS, and in neither of them did I make the decision to mortgage everything to buy a MS example, the question is, in assembling a "reasonable" set of Morgans, what is the best course of action. My answer to this was to own two nice circulated coins--my first was a PCGS VF35 example, and I later upgraded to a PCGS XF 45 coin, which I now own.

However, is the 1893s really the most difficult coin to find in the Morgan series? Not really--it has great popularity and notoriety, but is it really "rare?" By most numerical rarity standards, the answer is NO. Even in the Morgan series, many think the King of the Morgans is the 1895 Proof, of which 880 were minted, and can run the price tag up about as far as the 93s. Likewise, if one considers CONDITIONAL rarities, the 1884s in MS condition is brutal to find a really attractive example that isn't insanely priced due to survival rates in MS.

So, what is the best course of action? Hard to say, depending upon one's pocketbook, but if you do invest in an 1893s, get it from a reputable dealer in PCGS or NGC certified slabs. Make sure that the dealer stands behind his/her coin, and do not take chances--there are no bargains for this coin. Likewise, be aware that 10,000 coins do not a genuine rarity make. It is popular, as the series is popular, but it isn't a rarity, so much as a scarcity and popular piece. Here is a list of US rarities with which I agree, and note the coins considered more uncommon than the 1893s:http://cointrackers.com/blog/11/most-valuable-coins/

So, what to do? A lot of people do not bother collecting Morgans from 1892-1895 altogether, due to price and having to compromise on condition versus dollars. I compromised, but am happy with my decision, even after selling off the two complete sets, and buying another 1893s (I lucked out, and got mine at an estate sale for under market--it is a PCGS example, and was verified by a reliable dealer to be genuine, in a genuine slab). Some folks collect more common Morgans, and are happy doing so. I feel one cannot go wrong either way.

 

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My solution is filling my 7178/7179 albums with (well) circulated examples for aesthetic and budget balance. My date set album goal is MS with the exception of '93, '94 and '95. I'll likely settle for EF to AU range for those dates. The rest of my Morgan collection is VAM driven. If it's cracked or clashed I'm interested.

 

Very nicely written.

Real-world "rarity" is inconsequential. "Rarity" happens when demand means people are willing to pay more than you're willing for the same coin. Numismatics abounds with proof that demand is the price driver, not strict rarity.

PCGS Pops show 10x as many 1884-S in Mint State as 1893-S. Based on availability, 1892-S in MS should be far more expensive than 1884-S; there are more 1884's in MS63 than 1892's in any Mint State grade. The price less than doubles between the issues, though.

 

Rare? Not by any stretch of the imagination. Many so-called "keys" in most widely collected series aren't. Its high price is driven by high demand from collectors seeking to complete the series despite its lack of rarity.

 

In my Morgan collection, which is far from complete, I'm setting a target $$$ per coin. That determines what "grade" I purchase. The 1893 S may never make it in the collection. I have a hard time spending that much for a VG coin.

 

You can say the same thing about the popular keys to any series -- 1877 Indian cent, 1909-S VDB Lincoln, 1916-D Mercury dime. All are both more expensive and more available than other coins in their respective series.

I don't have a 93-S Morgan yet. Some day I will, I tell myself, but it will have to be an exceedingly wholesome coin. Anyone looking for this key, or the others mentioned above, will need to pay close attention to every aspect of quality. Don't buy a problem coin just to fill a hole, as it will be difficult to sell later when you decide you can't live with the problem anymore. If all you can afford a VG, buy a gorgeous VG. They exist.

 

I was very lucky with the 93s. The two that I have owned came to me fairly easily. My current 93s was after I sold my complete set, and I picked up this PCGS XF 45 one for a reasonable sum ($5600). That was what the estate of this collector was asking, and I had an authentication done of coin and slab before buying. That was a lucky break: