1909 S VDB Population Figures

Hi, everyone --

I was wondering if anybody has any ideas as to the 1909 S VDB Lincoln cent POPULATION figures. Of course, its mintage is 484,000, but that has little to do with the remaining number that survive to this day.

I know many were squirreled away back in 1909 and, thus, explains the relatively high number of Mint State specimens, but it seems that many '09 S VDBs I have come across online at eBay and elsewhere have been damaged (corroded, cleaned, etc.). I can't believe all 484,000 remain, and I'd be betting many wouldn't ever come close to qualifying as problem-free Good or better.

Does anybody have any insight on this? The question has nagged me for years and I just thought I'd take a shot here and ask. :smile

 

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I can offer little evidence, except that anectodal.

I was at a coinshow this last weekend....a small coin show, mind you....only about 30 dealers. There was a dealer with 5 certified examples of this coin.

I believe that a large percentage (<80%) of the original mintage still exists, and the vast majority of those coins are in the hands of collectors who know exactly what it is that they have.

 

I think you are extremely optimistic in saying there are 390,000 09-S VDB's out there. NGC and PCGS have certified 16,000 of them. That would mean that they have only certified 4% of them and this is one coin that nearly everyone says get it certified. I would guess they have certified more like 25% to 33%. Even if you exclude another 50% as uncertifiable (cleaned, damaged, etc.), that would mean that there are no more than 128,000. Using nothing more than the certified population, I think I would be pretty safe in saying there are less than 100,000 of them left.

 

there is or was a couple of these ( i think havent been there in awhile) at my coin shop that werent certified.

 

Well from the early wheat cents only the 1931 S was saved in good ocndition since it was hoarded by one person.
Now with the 1909 S VDB you have to presume it did at least a couple of years through circulation before it started to be collected, plus all the samples that are lost or that are currently sitting a dealers stockpile or a forgotten stash of ocins somewhere.
I would say accessible 1909 S VDB population is probably around 70,000. Plus another couple housand still in hoards of jars but forgotten about maybe another 10,000. So overall maybe around 80k IMO.

 

I've seen approximately 10 uncertified examples for every certified one. I myself own and uncertified example, why don't I have it certed? maybe if I ever sell it I might, but for now I know exactly what it is, am sure its authentic b/c of diagnostics, and in a slab it won't fit in my dansco album. so I'd say that maybe as much as half the mintage survived but it is more likely a quarter to a third of the mintage.

 

Yikes, I find that hard to believe. Sure hope that's not the case, but you never know.

 

I've always wondered how many bags and rolls people squirreled away and the rightful owners of them don't know they have them. I bet over 75% still exist...

 

I would love to be at that garage sale

 

It's well known that one man bought 500 rolls of Unc 1909-S VDBs in 1909 and sold them in 1918 for 1-3/4 cents apiece. (Story in Breen Complete Encyclopedia.) That's 25,000 right there, and likely most of them are still Mint State unless they have been spent or lost. Take a look at the PCGS population, the S VDB in MS65 Red is the most common mintmarked Lincoln from 1909-1933. I have an analysis of all this on my website, if anyone wants more detail.

Sure, way popular, but available for the money. Lots of the other mintmarked dates weren't saved to anywhere near the extent of the S VDB (and the 1909 VDB of course, but I'm just talking mintmarked issues 1909-1933).

 

I would say there is at least 350,000 of these coins and

I would say there is at least 450,000 of these coins in the market and probably 200,000 are even real.

 

There are 757 PCGS certified S VDB's in 65 red, but there are 1421 in 64 RB and 874 in 64 RD. That sounds like the 65 RD is the third most common (or possibly lower)>

 

PCGS coinfacts lists the "survival estimate" at 61,000.

 

Regardless of the amount, I will be getting on of those....one of these days. Can't wait.

 

Yep, the BN and RB are more common, I was just using MS65RD as an example. But you are absolutely right, and some of those RDs are becoming RB and BN.

 

If there are just 61,000 then I have some ocean front property in the middle of Ten

If there are just 61,000 of them then I have some ocean front property in the middle of Tennessee for sale, cheap!!!

 

I purchased my 1909-S VDB in 1975 right before I joined the Coast Guard. I wrote on it that I paid $125.00 for it. Lot of money back then. Since I retired (30 years later), I sent it off to a friend (person that sold it to me
back in 1975) to take it to NGC and get it graded. He got it back and it came back from NGC as a F15. I was surprised and also questioned, how
many there were out there with the low mintage numbers? Well I have mine now, graded and slabbed. Only took me 30 years to get around to it!

 

WOW! I now have some backup for my SWAG's. I think I came surprisingly close to their number.

 

Very interesting, everybody. Thank you for all of your insight on this!