Yeah, i see what they're trying to do, but i think they're shooting themselves in the foot. How long before the top two are PCGS and CAC, and everyone else is considered second tier?
And that is the real problem, or perhaps saying - it's the root of the problem - would be a better way to say it. And it's not so much that the number of gradable coins is declining, it's more that the number of gradable coins has expired, run out, for all intents and purposes, and it did so almost 20 years ago. Which is why the TPGs began changing, loosening their grading standards back then, and have continued to do so until today. And they did that so coins that had already been graded could sent in again and upgraded. It was the only way they could maintain their revenue stream. And it worked, it kept them going for a long time. But they have finally reached the point where they simply cannot continue to loosen standards even more because collectors and the market have gotten wise - finally ! The TPGs fully realize that the market will simply not accept any more upgrading of coins were never deserving of being upgraded to begin with. They realize that they have gone as far as they can go with that tactic. And there are no other tactics to be employed. They have exhausted the number of ungradeable coins that can be put in slabs (detail slabs) as well. Now I'm not claiming that every single coin there is has been submitted and resubmitted. I'm quite sure there are thousands, tens of thousands of them out there that have never been seen by a TPG. But the TPGs don't need tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands - they need millions of them ! - to keep their revenues, if not up, at least where they already are. But those coins simply do not exist in those numbers or anywhere even approaching those numbers. And yeah, the TPGs can keep grading moderns, the production of modern coins isn't going to stop. But moderns only account for about half, 50% of revenue. And what company can afford to lose 50% of their revenue and stay in business ? No company can do that. They really have no choice except to do 1 of 2 things. Either come up with - 1, a completely new grading system, or 2, revert back to the older, stricter, tougher grading standards that used to be used. Those are pretty much the only two things there are that will result in coins already graded and slabbed having to be sent in again to be regraded and slabbed. I completely agree, they do not want either of those things. But they sure do want something ! But the important part is - the TPGs have to have something different, they have to change something. Because they are and always have been operating on a business model with an expiration date. And that date has finally come for they have run out of delaying tactics !
Definitely a ploy to make ‘numismatics’ accessible to stackers. As if we need more stacker types pretending they know coins. either way, I don’t use NGC so I’m interested to see more pushback. Comments below come from Instagram.
Or, as you say, go out of business. If it happened to Sears and Northern Telecom, it can sure as shootin' happen to even a "top-tier" TPG.
I got a "partner offer" email from NGC this morning for me to sign up for something called VaultBox. Apparently it's a sealed box of random NGCX graded bullion, all 9.9 or 10, selected and sealed by NGC. Looks like there's 10 coins in there. There's nothing indicating what "partner" company this is on their website. Just a sign up box. You could randomly get a coin "worth up to $23000." It's "Inspired by the excitement of opening trading card boxes, but now every pull has value." I guess there's a market for this kind of stuff?
It's the old throw it on the wall and see if it sticks. If it does, it will be a new source of revenue for them if a bunch of people think they need to get their slabs "updated." The trouble is the wait times to get material processed are ridiculous now. Adding this will only make it worse.
Maybe instead of that soliloquy, it could have been reduced to stating that if NGC wants to do something for the collectors, then state publicly they will do what CAC (a 4PG) is doing...re-build TRUST in the hobby, in lieu of a silly making a market scheme that does nothing for the hobby.
Why do you do this? The overwhelming majority of this post is completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand. Since NGCX only applies to modern coins minted from 1982 to present, the only relevant paragraph is: First, we have to assume that your breakdown of their revenue streams is correct because I don't believe it is. But lets say for argument sake that 50% of their revenue comes from moderns. That ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT mean that they are losing the entire other 50% of their revenue. Submissions of classic US coinage are suffering SOME decline, but both the World and Ancient coin grading markets are expanding enough to more than compensate for the loss in classic US coin grading. Here is an article from earlier this year that shows that NGC & PCGS are doing just fine and than coins are leading the way. Numismatic News: Coins Lead the Way in Hobby Growth They don't need to scam people into resubmissions and they never have.
NGC has publicly stated that they think world coins are the current major growth area. They also just released a new holder type without prongs where the coin is sandwiched between two clear sheets (and it's amazing). They are working on other products. I think this is an interesting way to leverage their expertise in collectibles grading in other markets. And it's optional. Now I'm all for revamping the grading scale, though my primary concern is to fix the issues with it, rather than to arbitrarily renumber the scale, so I think this misses the mark. But more power to them for trying to innovate.
The only reason I can see for this new system is to SPEED UP the NAKED EYE GRADING for mostly U.S. Mint bullion. However, I don't see how this would speed anything up UNLESS they did something like what one TPGS did in the past that I DID NOT AGREE WITH: A generic label was printed for each date SE with the grade of MS-67 (At that time MS-70 grade was not ever used for anything). All SE were slabbed with that label. A SE from a sealed green box is very rarely below MS-68.
Why not put both on the label, or would one show they were wrong about the other? At some point when the decimal system was recognizable to a coins condition, the shelton scale could be simply removed or put on the back of the slab. I will be expecting a check in the mail for this novel idea.
They're the same scale. It's not an 10 point scale where they are free to give any decimal they like. The site explains the scale in a way that (almost) maps to the Sheldon scale. It's clear they aren't changing how they are grading, only how they record the grade on the label. MS 10 = MS 70 MS 9.9 = MS 69 MS 9.8 = MS 68 MS 9.7 = MS 67 MS 9.6 = MS 66 MS 9.5 = MS 65 MS 9.4 = MS 64 MS 9.3 = MS 63 MS 9.2 = MS 62 MS 9.1 = MS 61 MS 9 = MS 60 AU 8.8 = AU 58 AU 8.5 = AU 55 AU 8.3 = AU 53 AU 8 = AU 50 XF 7.5 = XF 45 XF 7 = XF 40 VF 6.5 = VF 35 VF 6 = VF 30 VF 5.5 = VF 20 VF 5 = VF 20 F 4.5 = F 15 F 4 = F 12 VG 3.5 = VG 10 VG 3 = VG 8 G 2.5 = G 6 G 2 = G 4 AG 1.5 = AG 3 Fair 1 = Fair 2 ???? = Poor 1 (not sure - it would make sense for them to have a grade of Poor 0.5)