I recently had the privilege of searching a small hoard of roughly 1,850 1919 P dimes, which had never been searched for the DDO. That makes this lot a fairly statistically significant measure of how rare the DDO is, if at least one is found. In the lot, I found 3 examples of the DDO, none better than AG unfortunately. So 3/1850 = 0.16%, which means about 1 in 625 1919 P dimes is the DDO. Interestingly, according to the “official” census on the CU forums, there are another 43 known examples. That means this lot contained 6.5% of the total known population (inclusive) of the 1919 DDO dime. That means there are probably many more out there waiting to be discovered. I just thought it was interesting, and these coins were quite fun to find. Obligatory Pictures:
That's a lot of dimes to search! But, finding three of these makes it worth it. I haven't been tracking the price on these, but I know they were going for crazy amounts when they were first discovered.
Statistically that seems pretty accurate. There were 521 obverse dies used (https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-explor...ury-dimes-1916-1945/14922/1919-10c-ms/?des=ms). One die in 521 = .19%, versus your finding of .16%. With 35,740,000 minted, that makes average die life 68598, which seems rather low to me, but based on that on average you'd think close to 70k of the DDO were originally coined. I don't know how to assign a "one out of 500" rarity.
A significant number of the known examples have a die crack from a wing feather, and none are known with extensive die wear, which suggests a relatively short die life. That lines up with the occurrence being a little below the average based on the number of dies
Wow! Makes me wish I'd bought an F-VF when they first came out! I thought the prices were ridiculous and would go down. Proved me wrong, didn't they?
I love to see something new like this being discovered. Great time to have some fun searching collections that have been put away for many years. I only had a few put away but no luck. Still had fun looking. This reminds me of when the CPG first came out. Folks were digging everything out to have a fresh look. I did really well in my search. Had a blast at shows and shops picking dealers inventory.
You, what about all mine? And I’m still finding junk coins I bought but never looked at. Good thing I’m retired.
Yes, die life would certainly be a factor, so it's a ballpark calculation. If all dies produced an average number, and your sample is an even distribution from all dies... then you'd expect 3.55 of them. Of course you can't have part of a coin. If you had 2,084 of them to search then you'd expect to find 4. On Heritage archives 5 out of 1241 results are designated DDO, which gives 0.4%. Of course the results there are skewed, because they would be more likely to appear at a major auction house than a normal 1919. At least that's my thinking.
Can someone share this thread on the 1919 DDO thread on CU so that these can be added onto the census? I don’t have an account there.
The skewing is the result of condition. Most (all?) HA examples are MS, whereas all known DDOs are not MS. Most are AG/Fair, which are easily sold via private sale. That makes me wonder if the DDO batch was sent out to a location where they became workhorses with few higher grade examples, such as with the 1901 Morgan.
Not sure what happened, here's the link again. https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-explor...ury-dimes-1916-1945/14922/1919-10c-ms/?des=ms If it still doesn't work, the die info is on the NGC price guide page for 1919 10c: "Though World War I ended in 1918, the economic conditions it created lingered into 1919, and this pushed the mintage of dimes at Philadelphia to a very high level. The Mint Director's Report noted that some this huge production utilized 521 obverse dies and 343 reverse dies. This issue is common in worn condition, and Mint State examples are also quite plentiful. There are plenty of certified gems, but, as with the coin illustrated, these can display heavy die erosion and loss of shallow details. Fortunately, the pool of nice examples is large enough that a discriminating collector can hold out for a sharp coin. The 1919(P) dime was bereft of collectable varieties until quite recently, when the discovery of a dramatically doubled obverse die was announced. Evidently quite rare, it eluded detection for many years."